Track record

A hit means the wave ended at a price inside the range the prediction gave; a miss, outside it. Until that wave has ended the prediction is undecided: each step shows only what was known at that moment, so step forward to see it decided. We do not score when a wave ends: the chart does not promise a time, and our timing estimates are not yet good enough to publish.

Four kinds of prediction, never mixed. Early: made the moment a wave is first judged to have ended. Confirmed: made once that ending is certain. Updated: re-made as the next wave develops. What-if: where the next waves would go if the wave in progress had already ended.

A what-if is scored only if its “if” came true — the wave in progress did end exactly where the what-if supposed. Otherwise it did not happen, and it is in no hit rate, for or against. A what-if leaves the chart the moment the wave in progress ends, or a newer what-if replaces it, exactly as it did live; its result is in the detailed data for the next few waves.

Withdrawn predictions are shown, not counted. We sometimes call a wave's end early, and treat the next wave as having started from that point. If the first wave then carries on and gets bigger, the wave we thought had started never existed, and the predictions based on it are withdrawn. They were on the chart at the time, so they stay in the replay, marked withdrawn later. They are in no hit rate.

A result belongs to a prediction made before the outcome was known. A wave can go on being re-predicted for a short while after it has in fact ended. Once the chart knows a wave has ended, its box here stays as it was at that moment, and anything re-made for that wave afterwards is neither shown nor counted.

How early a prediction was made matters. The hit rates are split by how much of the wave's eventual price move had already happened when the prediction was made — “not begun” means the wave had not started. A prediction made late in a wave is an easier one, so it is never added to the early ones.

Each confidence level is its own promise. Every prediction except a what-if carries one: high says at least 85% of waves end inside the range, medium 75%, low 60%. Each level has its own row and they are never added together, so each rate can be read against what that level promised.

Nothing is left out, and nothing is rewritten. Every prediction is stored when it is made, together with the price at that moment, and never altered. A wave is predicted several times as it develops; every one of those predictions is in the record, not only the last. The record began on 19 September 2026.

The replay shows only what was known then. Each step of it is the chart at one moment: the waves up to that moment, the price, and the predictions that were showing. A result appears on a prediction only at the step where its wave ends.